Long Live the AKP

Both the news and Facebook newsfeeds have been full of commentary on the Turkish protests this week. But for those who live under a rock, events have run something like this:

After riot police tear-gassed a small group of people in Istanbul protesting against Gezi Park being bulldozed for redevelopment as a shopping mall, thousands of people marched into nearby Taksim Square in anger at the brutality. The demonstrations spread to other cities within a few days, and now unions are calling a two-day general strike. For his part, the Turkish Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, insists that he will not compromise the original plans to redevelop the park nor listen substantially to the protesters. The political angle to the protests is explicit, with calls for the PM and the government to resign, reflecting the polarised nature of Turkish society. Although the Gezi park issue galvanised traditionalists and conservatives, the public anger has emanated mainly from the 30-40% of Turkey that has long loathed Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP): the left, secularists, Kemalist-nationalists and the youth of the major cities. They have many grievances (see this article, for example), many of which are perfectly valid.

Yet what the Facebook warriors have missed in their righteous fury is this: the problem is not Erdogan's government but the shambles that is the parliamentary opposition.

That is not to say that the government is right in destroying an historic park without proper consultation, or condoning police brutality. But would any of this have happened had the AKP not been the only serious party in Turkey for the last decade? If there had been a pragmatic opposition party, or coalition of parties, that offered a positive alternative vision for Turkey? Arguably not. If there had been such an opposition, Erodogan and the AKP would have been held to account far more effectively. The people protesting on the street, trying to remove a democratically elected government via mass sit-ins and striking, would have had an outlet to channel their dissatisfaction. Crackdowns on Erdogan's enemies would not have been anywhere near as authoritarian or total. Indeed, the AKP has been a victim of its own success. Had they not had the power to systematically destroy their enemies (in the army, the media, the courts) there would not be an undercurrent of anger that threatened to boot them out of office. Instead, the main opposition parties - the centre-left CHP and the nationalist MHP - have been weak, reactionary and totally ineffectual. They tried to shut down the AKP via the courts, opposed reaching out to the Kurdish population and rejected the policies that have trebled Turkey's GDP/capita. Small wonder that protesters actively dissociate from them.

So kicking out the government would do absolutely nothing to help Turkey, contra to the beliefs of indignant citizens, although it would probably succeed in sparking capital flight. The problems are real but protesters are focusing on the wrong target. A proper parliamentary opposition is the only way that any of their concerns will ever get addressed, because if Erdogan et al. don't face a challenge at the ballot box they have no incentive to listen. Until such an opposition emerges, long live the AKP.